Polymarket · BTC Up or Down · 5-minute rounds

See which side the sharp money takes before the close.

SharpTell follows the 25 wallets that made the most in these rounds over the last 24 hours and reads their money live, straight from the blockchain. Every call is logged and scored in public.

Loading the roundLive

–:––left

Up–

Down–

Sharp money, net$0

◀ toward Up$100 net makes a telltoward Down ▶

Tell Waiting for 3:00 The sharps' side is read 3 minutes and 2 minutes before the close.

Whole market, net $0Volume $00 fills seen

The record

Every tell is logged the moment it's made and scored when the round settles, as a $1 buy of the sharps' side at the market price, after Polymarket's taker fee. Nothing is deleted or reset.

Tell wonTell lostNo tell (sharps under $100 net)Strong tell

Profit from $1 on every tell, after fees

Why we think there's something here, and the limits. Before launch we tested this rule on 860 BTC 5-minute rounds (25–28 Oct 2026), picking the sharps only from rounds that had already finished. Their side won 3 to 7 points more often than its price implied, about +5% to +11% per $1 after fees. The same rule found no edge on ETH, SOL or XRP 5-minute rounds or on BTC 15-minute rounds, and three days is a short test. That's why this live record exists: judge it on what it does from here.

The sharps

The 25 wallets with the best profit in BTC 5-minute rounds over the last 24 hours (at least 8 rounds played), rebuilt after every round from the full trade list. Many are market makers, which is why their money says something.

How it works

No guesses and no hindsight: the same simple rule, run live on public data.

Find the sharps

After every round, SharpTell scores each wallet's profit in the last 24 hours of BTC 5-minute rounds and keeps the top 25.

Read their money

Every fill on Polymarket's exchange contract is read from Polygon as it lands, makers and takers both, about two seconds after the trade.

Make the call

At 3:00 and 2:00 before the close, if the sharps are more than $100 net toward one side, that side is the tell. Over $500 is a strong tell.

Score it honestly

When the round settles, the tell is scored as a $1 buy at that moment's price, minus Polymarket's fee, and added to the public record.

Is this financial advice?

No. It's a live readout of public blockchain data and a record of a simple rule. Past results don't promise future ones, and you can lose money trading these markets.

Why only BTC 5-minute rounds?

That's the only market where the rule held up in testing. ETH, SOL, XRP and the 15-minute rounds showed no edge, so we don't show tells for them.

Where does the data come from?

Fills come from Polymarket's CTF Exchange contract on Polygon. Round results and past trades come from Polymarket's public APIs. SharpTell isn't affiliated with Polymarket.

What does "joined late" mean?

If SharpTell restarts mid-round, it missed part of that round's money, so the round's tell is shown but kept out of the record.